I love lists. Lists make me feel organized and informed; they provide structure in a chaotic world and they help guide my decisions each day. I pore over the “best new music” lists on music sites to see which bands to check out, I look at the bestsellers lists for new books to read and, like any games marketer worth his stuffing, I look at the Top 10 selling games on our network and those of our colleagues to see what’s hot this week.
This last activity has a material impact on our business—not so much my doing it (though I’d like to think that everything I do has a big impact on our business), but rather because everyone is doing it. As soon as a game shows any staying power in “The Top 10” a developer starts getting calls, clones start getting built, and the industry generally takes notice.
But what about the rest of the games? Is our business only about The Top 10? Should we all just carry the top 10 games each week and bury the rest of our catalogs? The Long Tail suggests otherwise.
The Long Tail, the 2006 book by Chris Anderson (you may also know him as the current editor of Wired magazine), explores fundamental changes in the way media is created, distributed and consumed. While casual games are only given a very cursory mention in the book, they might represent the most perfect example there is of a Long Tail business.
What Is A Long Tail?
First a little background. The Long Tail, as Anderson has defined the term, refers to what exists beyond the Top 10. His contention is that there is life for products far beyond the Top 10 and that “the future of business is selling less of more.”
Think about your own catalog of games. In your business, how many of your games don’t sell a single copy in a given month? I would wager (a skill-based wager of course) that for any online distributor of casual games there is virtually no title that doesn’t sell at least one copy. Robbie Vann-Adibe, CEO of Ecast, a digital jukebox company, puts it well in Anderson’s book: “In a world of almost zero packaging cost and instant access to almost all content in this format, consumers exhibit consistent behavior: They look at almost everything.” Which means, of course, that almost everything has a potential customer.
The Long Tail of Casual Games
Let’s look at some of the conditions that create a Long Tail market and the degree to which we see these conditions in the casual games marketplace. According to Anderson, several factors provide the fertile ground in which a Long Tail business can flourish:
- Make the means of production easily available to anyone with the talent to produce quality content. While game development costs and production values have certainly been on the rise, it’s hard to argue that anyone with the talent and time can’t create a great casual game. In general, costs for a decent casual game for PC download run somewhere between $100K and $300K. Not exactly the kind of scratch your average developer has in the cushions of his couch, but not completely out of reach either.
- Make distribution easy and inexpensive. Large distribution channels are constantly hungry for new products—especially in a highly competitive industry. As casual game portals continue to proliferate, it isn’t surprising that they are releasing more titles more frequently. Of course, this is great news for the folks who have taken advantage of #1 above.
- Provide a connection between consumers and the content that matters to them. Finding the kinds of games I like should be easy and straightforward. And discovering new games that I might like should be almost effortless as well. If I really like match three games with an underwater motif and mahjong mini-games between every level, I shouldn’t have any trouble finding them. And once I have indicated a preference for such games, any time a new one is launched it should have no trouble finding me. To truly harness the power of the Long Tail, aggregators and distributors have to find better ways of connecting people to their preferred content.
The movie business provides a compelling example of how a company might use the Long Tail to its advantage (and profit). In Anderson’s book, Reed Hastings, CEO of Netflix, points out that new releases typically make up about 90% of a movie retailer’s rentals. Through its use of great categorization, user recommendations, and other consumer tools, however, Netflix has managed to steer 70% of its rentals to back catalog titles. As a consequence of that shift, Netflix can order and stock fewer copies of new releases—an important advantage considering that catalog titles cost less than new releases. And if stock performance is any indication, the Netflix model is working. (In March, 2005, the stock prices of both Netflix and Blockbuster were around $9 a share. Eighteen months later, Netflix stock had risen to nearly $30 a share—an increase of over 200%—while Blockbuster’s had drifted slowly downward to around $5.) By tapping into the Long Tail, Netflix has managed to lower its costs while providing consumers with a better way of finding content that matches their interests.
Key Lessons for Each Part of the Value Chain
For Developers: Have realistic expectations—and take chances. Realize that there is more than one kind of content that will be appealing to an audience, and if you make a game with decent (not extraordinary) production values that provides a compelling experience, there is someone out there (and a decent number of someone’s friends, most likely) who will buy it. Don’t get tied up with restrictive exclusives and your published content will find an audience. Another word on exclusives: When deciding whether to offer content exclusively through a particular publisher, always consider that company’s total reach. If your deal doesn’t allow you to go directly to aggregators that don’t have a relationship with the publisher you’re signing with, you’re just leaving money on the table. Long-term exclusives are generally not in your best interests, or in the best interests of the consumer.
For Publishers: You need to have realistic expectations also. Provide great descriptions and marketing materials for published titles, because making sure your games get placed and described appropriately is a big part of the battle. Craft smart partnerships with talented developers and good distribution partners. And remember: Not every game is going to be a huge hit—but that’s OK.
For Aggregators/Distributors: If the Long Tail exists, but all consumers can see is the head, does the tail really matter (or even exist)? As more and more games are added to your catalog, it becomes more and more important to establish a common and descriptive taxonomy with which to connect people with this content.
Think about the music industry. There are countless bands, songs, genres and artists. Yet if I’m into early 90s shoe-gazer Brit-pop (and who isn’t?), there’s a pretty accepted list of artists who fit into this category. If music, with literally millions of songs, can pull this off, why can’t we come up with better, more descriptive categories than Puzzle, Action, Arcade, Card & Board and Word? Is Zuma really a Puzzle game? Is Cake Mania really an Action title? C’mon people, there are a lot of smart people in this business—surely we can come up with something better.
The ultimate point here is that we can all do a better job of opening up our extended catalogs to a broader range of consumers. And if we do, the true benefits of the Long Tail will be ours: Better selection, a larger, more satisfied audience, more developers taking more chances (and creating, in the process, more interesting content), and more revenue for everyone. Who wouldn’t want that?
Long live the Long Tail!
Tony Leamer has been working on the Web since its infancy in the early ‘90s. In 2000, Tony joined the then-nascent RealArcade team at RealNetworks, playing key roles in the launch and growth of both the RealArcade and GamePass products. His final role at Real found him managing the RealArcade distribution business, syndicating the RealArcade service through third-party distribution partners. At Oberon Media, Tony is responsible for content marketing and brand development in the company's publishing operation, located in Seattle, Washington. He can be reached at tony.leamer@oberon-media.com.
